Friday, December 7, 2007

Stay hungry, stay foolish

Change may come in the form of a database, applications or integration solutions. Is this the time for the next wave of Enterprise Application Integration solutions aka EAI 2.0? Some people in the business reporting world claim we are ripe for a breakthrough as big as Visicalc. while other people predict a somewhat daunting future depending on your POV, see googlezon

The humble spreadsheet harnessed the power of the microprocessor to millions of PC users. It was and remains the only significant programming tool used by millions of people who know nothing of simple programming such as compiling, scripting, or even simple looping. It provides a simple method of assembling data sources to create a custom "application". The application is really part of a business process, most often a financial process. A "smart spreadsheet" loaded by tagged data for business processes would be a powerful way to unlock collaboration and process knowledge and mitigate the ever growing costs of regulatory reporting and compliance. Sarbox costs -- be gone!

Here's the raw data . . 2007 will see the number of personal blogs exceed 80 million. The number of new blogs created daily will rise to over 100,000 a day or more than one per second. However, many analysts are saying that the relevance, average quality and value of each blog will decline pointing to the stat. that over half of all blogs cease to be active within three months of their creation, and only 13 percent of all blogs are updated more than once a week. However, although some say it will be increasingly difficult to find quality blogs, they miss the point. This is the best spot for CEO blogs that I've been able to find.

"...Growth in the numbers of blogs tracked by Technorati continues to grow briskly. While the doubling of the blogosphere has slowed a bit (every 236 days or so), interest in blogging remains considerable. About 55% of all blogs are active, which means that they have been updated at least once in the last 3 months."

"The integration of blogs and traditional media sites on the web continues. Technorati has put together the top 100 sites that make up "The short head" (as opposed to "the long tail"), which is still predominantly made up of traditional media sites, like The New York Times, Yahoo! News, CNN, and MSNBC."

"By the time you reach the top 5000, blogs have essentially taken over, with very few well-funded mainstream media sites listed." For the full monty of graphics and analysis, check out the full report.

Information dissemination is becoming more fluid and a new form of intermediary will likely emerge: the blog (or ideally somethings that includes the larger world of semantic data) aggregator will emerge, most likely funded by advertising, and specialized in identifying the best quality content . . segue to a coffee meeting I had with the leaders of Monitor110 (I think that's read Monitor One One Zero, binary for 6 .. degrees of freedom--ouch!) and their $11 million financing . . where the FT reported on a seemingly innovative search/news aggregation idea aimed at the financial trading community aka ‘hedge funds.’ Basically it is touted as a revolution in information gathering, digging out the nuggets that exist below the radar screen of the conventional or mainstream press.

They do sound like they have some smart people and decent technology so it may be a useful toy - - however, I suspect the really smart money traders who have known how to search blogs and use RSS readers and tagging and social-bookmarking services etc. will be a bit miffed that any old trader will be (in theory) able to find the same gems of information by paying up for Monitor110’s services. The ground Monitor110 is breaking has been tried before by Clearforest and Relegence and other less known startups for some time now and digital generation traders can mash-up their own intelligent news filters either from scratch or using tools like Netvibes. And beware this space was hyped up by Majestic Research who quickly faltered and fell on their sword.

Edward Hadas over at breakingviews.com (another paywall, but really good analysis site founded by Hugo Dixon) compares it to using the ‘wisdom of crowds’ to trade. ‘Wisdom of crowd’ - mining would be things like Marketocracy and SocialPicks.

Monitor110 is all about finding the needle in the haystack; finding the individual voice or nugget that escapes crowd amplification. Finding the kernel before it becomes a snowball. Beware the paradox of diminishing returns, however: the more people find the needle the more difficult it will be to monetize. Or paraphrasing Dash - ‘if everybody is special, it really just means that nobody is…’ I'm bullish on their assumptions and wish the founders well.

2008: After raising over $20m, Monitor110 skids off the rails - lessons in hubris.

Dash

Is it so far fetched to envisage (a future) Google Money and (a future) iPod converging and delivering the killer app, iMoney - - making investing as cool as turning on a music file. Don't rest on your iPod laurels Steve Jobs - we need your brilliance ("stay hungry, stay foolish")! We are indeed in strange times where innovation is being stimulated by government regulators and accountants. Perhaps their time has come - when was the last major shake up in accounting - double-entry bookkeeping? . . a 1,000 years ago.

Monday, December 3, 2007

Building a high tech winner

I received this seasons greeting today and thought it worth while to post it as a blog since it is an excellent rendition of why some companies have the secret sauce and make a difference.

Dear <>,

Happy holidays! Yes, it's December, the holidays are here and it's been a while!

I recently had the privilege of being the inaugural speaker in Google's new MarketingTalks@Google program. This is a variant of the successful Authors@Google program which has featured folks like Michael Lewis, Hillary Clinton, Michael Bloomberg, J.Craig Venter, and more. Those of you who haven't seen me in a while may want to check out my presentation on YouTube. Here's the 51-minute talk for your enjoyment... Let me know what you think!

I wish you and your family a happy holiday season and a new year full of love, health, and (low-carbon) abundance. Thanks again for being part of this journey. Also, please forward this email by clicking on the forward button below.

Stay in touch!

Sincerely,


Tony Seba
9 Fundamental Rules of High Tech Strategy

Head first or headlong

Falling in love is an emotional thing as anyone will attest. However, one would have thought placing a bet on a company was based on a little more than emotion. These companies prove how easy it is to jump in headlong with the herd. And in these cases, neck first!

Also, this was a refreshing view on the recent credit crunch, definitely worth blog-marking.

Technology divide

Several notable technology milestones came to my attention this month. . . all of which are likely to disturb existing markets to some (lesser or greater) extent.

The first was the talk of Google wireless and the news about Google's Android and Open Handset Alliance... and the next was Verizon's response to open up their closed network to new applications and devices. This is a fundamental disruption and should make way for a wave of innovation for consumers. No sign of a similar quake from the FCC or the cable operators.

Second, it looks like the next iteration of the web is on the way with Hummer Winblad's investment in BSG and the acquisition of New Paradigms and Don Tapscott - will be interesting to see how this pans out. BSG has bold plans to take the new web (WIKIs, IM etc) into corporate enterprises. The question still remains whether there is any economic value although it all sounds very cool. . . but I think they need a younger person to represent this new wave. Tapscott is too much of a sage.

Lastly, is the advent of the "small world" of nano-technology, typified by the spate of startups in this space. Nano is a space that's been excellently written up by Batelle Memorial Institute in their recently completed report.